Best U23 Young Defensive Midfielders in the Bundesliga
6 players aged 23 or under · ranked by Analytical Strength Index
Best Young Defensive Midfielders in the Bundesliga (Jun 2026)
Ranked by Analytical Strength Index
Market Overview: Bundesliga Young Defensive Midfielders 2022-23
Our database tracked 6 Bundesliga Young Defensive Midfielders in the 2022-23 season, representing 6 clubs with a combined market value of €76.6M. The average market value for Bundesliga Young Defensive Midfielders was €12.8M, with the average age at 21 years old.
The most valuable young defensive midfielder in the Bundesliga was Aleksandar Pavlovic, worth €65.0M and played for Bayern Munich at 22 years old. The top 5 Young Defensive Midfielders averaged €15.3M in market value, including Aljoscha Kemlein and Ryan Fosso.
Age distribution showed the youngest tracked young defensive midfielder was Niklas Swider (19 years, Borussia Mönchengladbach, €250K), while the oldest was Ryan Fosso (23 years, SK Sturm Graz, €2.0M). Research shows Young Defensive Midfielders typically peak at age 26-27.
Historical analysis showed 6 Young Defensive Midfielders (100%) increased in market value over the following 12 months based on age-curve trajectories, then-current performance trends, and playing time analysis. The Bundesliga market for Young Defensive Midfielders remained actively developing with emerging talent in the 2022-23 season.
💡 Use the search bar below to find specific players, or apply filters to narrow results by club, age range, or market value. Click the chart icon next to any player to view their historical value trajectory and forecast.
Explore Market Size by Position in Bundesliga
Interactive bubble chart showing predicted 2-year growth vs current age for all Bundesliga Young Defensive Midfielders. Identify undervalued assets and track market momentum across 6 clubs with €76.6M combined value.
Age Distribution: Bundesliga Young Defensive Midfielders
The Bundesliga CDM market shows 2 distinct age segments, with the largest cohort in the 21-23 bracket (4 players, 67% of market). The 21-23 age group holds the most value at €76.2M, averaging €19.0M per player.
Top Young Defensive Midfielders by Age Bracket
U21 Years (2 players)
21-23 Years (4 players)
Market Value Distribution
Elite Tier Concentration
The top 1 Young Defensive Midfielders (17% of players) control €65.0M
Market Tiers
Market structure shows distributed value with elite (€50m+) tier representing 17% of the Bundesliga CDM pool.
Elite (€50M+)
Mid (€5-15M)
Emerging (<€5M)
Club Distribution: Bundesliga Young Defensive Midfielders
Among 6 Bundesliga clubs, Bayern Munich leads with 1 Young Defensive Midfielders worth €65.0M (averaging €65.0M per player). The top 10 clubs account for 100% of tracked Young Defensive Midfielders.
Bayern Munich (1 Young Defensive Midfielders)
1.FC Union Berlin (1 Young Defensive Midfielders)
SK Sturm Graz (1 Young Defensive Midfielders)
Borussia Mönchengladbach (1 Young Defensive Midfielders)
Player Rankings
Ranked by Analytical Strength Index. Click any player to view full profile, or click the chart icon to see value history.
Aleksandar Pavlovic
Bayern Munich • 22 years old
€56.2M
€65.0M
+15.6%
Expected: €74.6M
92.8
Aljoscha Kemlein
1.FC Union Berlin • 21 years old
€7.8M
€9.0M
+15.6%
Expected: €10.3M
59.9
Ryan Fosso
SK Sturm Graz • 23 years old
€1.7M
€2.0M
+15.6%
Expected: €2.1M
37.8
Niklas Swider
Borussia Mönchengladbach • 19 years old
€216K
€250K
+15.6%
Expected: €309K
10.0
Marwin Schmitz
FC St. Pauli • 19 years old
€173K
€200K
+15.6%
Expected: €247K
7.2
Mahmut Kücüksahin
FC Augsburg • 22 years old
€151K
€175K
+15.6%
Expected: €193K
6.8
Scout Tools
Advanced analytics for scouting and recruitment decisions. Each tool provides unique insights into player value, potential, and market dynamics.
Pre-Peak Value Efficiency (PPVE)
Identifies pre-peak players offering exceptional value relative to their age bracket. Higher PPVE = better value.
Understanding Pre-Peak Value Efficiency (PPVE)
Bayern Munich's Aleksandar Pavlovic at 22 years old has the highest Pre-Peak Value Efficiency at 7.22×. That means Aleksandar Pavlovic is valued 7.22× higher than the median player in the 21-23 age bracket-representing exceptional value before reaching peak age.
In second is Borussia Mönchengladbach's Niklas Swider, who is 19 years old, with a 1.00× PPVE. Third is Aljoscha Kemlein of 1.FC Union Berlin, who is 21 years old with a 1.00× PPVE.
How PPVE is calculated: PPVE compares a player's current market value to the median value of all players in their age bracket. A PPVE of 7.22× means the player is worth 622% more than typical players their age-making them high-value targets before they reach peak value.
PPVE by Age Bracket
| Rank | Player | Age | Bracket | Current Value | Bracket Median | PPVE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| #1 | Aleksandar Pavlovic Bayern Munich | 22 | 21-23 | €65.0M | €9.0M | 7.22× |
| #2 | Niklas Swider Borussia Mönchengladbach | 19 | U21 | €250K | €250K | 1.00× |
| #3 | Aljoscha Kemlein 1.FC Union Berlin | 21 | 21-23 | €9.0M | €9.0M | 1.00× |
| #4 | Marwin Schmitz FC St. Pauli | 19 | U21 | €200K | €250K | 0.80× |
| #5 | Ryan Fosso SK Sturm Graz | 23 | 21-23 | €2.0M | €9.0M | 0.22× |
| #6 | Mahmut Kücüksahin FC Augsburg | 22 | 21-23 | €175K | €9.0M | 0.02× |
Return-to-Peak Potential (RPP)
Recovery potential from current value to forecasted peak. Shows how much upside remains for players approaching their prime.
Understanding Return-to-Peak Potential (RPP)
FC St. Pauli's Marwin Schmitz at 19 years old has the highest Return-to-Peak Potential at +44%. That means Marwin Schmitz is projected to appreciate 44% as they reach their peak age in 7 years-representing significant upside before entering their prime.
In second is Borussia Mönchengladbach's Niklas Swider, who is 19 years old, with a +44% RPP (7 years to peak). Third is Aljoscha Kemlein of 1.FC Union Berlin, who is 21 years old with a +35% RPP (5 years to peak).
How RPP is calculated: RPP compares a player's current market value to their forecasted peak value, calculating the percentage appreciation potential. A 44% RPP means the player is expected to gain 44% value as they enter their prime-making them excellent growth investments.
Recovery Potential by Player
| Rank | Player | Age | Years to Peak | Current | Peak Forecast | RPP % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| #1 | Marwin Schmitz FC St. Pauli | 19 | 7 | €200K | €357K | +44% |
| #2 | Niklas Swider Borussia Mönchengladbach | 19 | 7 | €250K | €447K | +44% |
| #3 | Aljoscha Kemlein 1.FC Union Berlin | 21 | 5 | €9.0M | €13.9M | +35% |
| #4 | Mahmut Kücüksahin FC Augsburg | 22 | 4 | €175K | €252K | +30% |
| #5 | Aleksandar Pavlovic Bayern Munich | 22 | 4 | €65.0M | €93.4M | +30% |
| #6 | Ryan Fosso SK Sturm Graz | 23 | 3 | €2.0M | €2.7M | +25% |
Risk-Adjusted Upside (RAU)
Upside potential weighted against forecast uncertainty. Higher RAU = better risk-reward profile.
Understanding Risk-Adjusted Upside (RAU)
Borussia Mönchengladbach's Niklas Swider has the highest Risk-Adjusted Upside at 68.9. That means Niklas Swider has 23% upside potential with only 0% forecast uncertainty-representing excellent risk-reward for value appreciation.
In second is FC St. Pauli's Marwin Schmitz with a 68.9 RAU (23% upside, 0% uncertainty). Third is Aleksandar Pavlovic of Bayern Munich with a 53.6 RAU (15% upside, 0% uncertainty).
How RAU is calculated: RAU divides upside potential by forecast uncertainty (RAU = Upside % ÷ Uncertainty %). A RAU of 68.9 means the upside is 68.9× greater than the uncertainty-making it a high-confidence growth opportunity. Target RAU ≥2.0 for balanced risk-reward.
Risk-Adjusted Upside by Player
| Rank | Player | Expected | Range | Upside % | RAU |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| #1 | Niklas Swider Borussia Mönchengladbach | €309K | €266K-351K | +23% | 68.9 |
| #2 | Marwin Schmitz FC St. Pauli | €247K | €213K-281K | +23% | 68.9 |
| #3 | Aleksandar Pavlovic Bayern Munich | €74.6M | €65.6M-83.5M | +15% | 53.6 |
| #4 | Aljoscha Kemlein 1.FC Union Berlin | €10.3M | €8.9M-11.7M | +15% | 46.3 |
| #5 | Mahmut Kücüksahin FC Augsburg | €193K | €170K-216K | +10% | 38.7 |
| #6 | Ryan Fosso SK Sturm Graz | €2.1M | €1.9M-2.4M | +6% | 23.0 |
Roster Pressure Index (RPI)
Squad depth pressure based on Z-score distribution. Negative RPI = thin depth, positive = deep roster.
What This Shows
Z-Score explained: Measures how many standard deviations a player's strength is from the position average. Z-Score = 0 means average, +1.0 is one standard deviation above average, -1.0 is below average.
How to use: RPI < -1.0 indicates critical depth shortage. These positions need immediate reinforcement. RPI > +1.0 suggests strong depth, allowing selective, high-value additions only.
Current market: young defensive midfielder position shows weak depth (avg Z-score: -0.00). RPI: -0.00.
Position Depth Analysis
Highest Z-Scores
Lowest Z-Scores
Age-Share Concentration (ASC)
Identifies players capturing disproportionate value relative to age group representation. Positive ASC = value concentration.
Understanding Age-Share Concentration (ASC)
SK Sturm Graz's Ryan Fosso in the 21-23 age bracket has the highest Age-Share Concentration at +32.7%. That means Aleksandar Pavlovic captures 99.4% of total market value while representing only 66.7% of players in their age group-showing dominant elite status.
In second is 1.FC Union Berlin's Aljoscha Kemlein with a +32.7% ASC (99.4% value share vs 66.7% player share in 21-23 bracket). Third is Mahmut Kücüksahin of FC Augsburg with a +32.7% ASC (99.4% value vs 66.7% players in 21-23 bracket).
How ASC is calculated: ASC = (% of total value) - (% of total players) in age bracket. A +32.7% ASC means the player captures 32.7% more market value than their numerical representation-indicating marquee status. ASC > +15% = elite dominance, ASC < -15% = potential value targets.
Value Concentration by Player
| Rank | Player | Age Bracket | Value Share | Player Share | ASC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| #1 | Ryan Fosso SK Sturm Graz | 21-23 | 99.4% | 66.7% | +32.7% |
| #2 | Aljoscha Kemlein 1.FC Union Berlin | 21-23 | 99.4% | 66.7% | +32.7% |
| #3 | Mahmut Kücüksahin FC Augsburg | 21-23 | 99.4% | 66.7% | +32.7% |
| #4 | Aleksandar Pavlovic Bayern Munich | 21-23 | 99.4% | 66.7% | +32.7% |
| #5 | Marwin Schmitz FC St. Pauli | U21 | 0.6% | 33.3% | -32.7% |
| #6 | Niklas Swider Borussia Mönchengladbach | U21 | 0.6% | 33.3% | -32.7% |
Buy-Now vs Wait-List Map
Categorizes players by age position and upside potential to guide timing of acquisition.
What This Shows
How to use:"Buy Now - High Upside" = immediate priority targets."Watch List" = monitor for 6-12 months."Peak" = pay premium for proven performers."Aging" = short-term depth only.
Current market: 2 immediate targets, 4 standard acquisitions, 0 watch-list prospects, 0 at peak.
BUY NOW - High Upside
WATCH LIST - High Upside
No players in this category
BUY NOW - Medium Upside
PEAK Players
No players in this category
Price vs Peer Z-Score
IQR-based pricing analysis relative to position peers. Identifies over/undervalued players vs market.
What This Shows
How to use: Z-score < -1.5 = significantly undervalued (potential bargain). Z-score > +1.5 = premium pricing (requires strong justification). Within ±1.0 = fair market value.
Current market: Position median is €65.0M. 0 undervalued, 0 premium.
Value Positioning vs Peers
| Player | Market Value | Position Median | Z-Score | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Marwin Schmitz FC St. Pauli | €200K | €2.0M | -1.00 | Good Value |
Mahmut Kücüksahin FC Augsburg | €175K | €2.0M | -1.00 | Good Value |
Niklas Swider Borussia Mönchengladbach | €250K | €2.0M | 0.00 | Fair Value |
Ryan Fosso SK Sturm Graz | €2.0M | €2.0M | 0.00 | Fair Value |
Aljoscha Kemlein 1.FC Union Berlin | €9.0M | €2.0M | 0.00 | Fair Value |
Aleksandar Pavlovic Bayern Munich | €65.0M | €2.0M | 0.00 | Fair Value |
How We Rank Bundesliga Young Defensive Midfielders
Our Analytical Strength Index is calibrated specifically for young defensive midfielders, using position-specific age curves and playing time benchmarks. The model draws from academic research on player valuation (Franck & Nüesch, 2012) and age-performance curves (Dendir, 2016).
Scoring Components for CDM
Historical Achievement Index (35%)
Peak career market value for Bundesliga young defensive midfielders, reflecting proven track record and reputation. Uses log-scale to account for exponential value distribution at elite level.
Current Performance Proxy (30%)
Present market value for Bundesliga young defensive midfielders, capturing recent form, injuries, and current performance level. Weighted to reflect age-related depreciation patterns.
Playing Time Utilization (18%)
Midfielders with 2,400+ minutes score highest, indicating regular starting role and sustained performance.
Age-Adjusted Performance Curve (12%)
Midfielders peak at 26-27 with 6.0%/year decline. Pre-peak players score higher on development trajectory.
Competition Level Adjustment (3%)
Bundesliga receives Top 5 European league premium for competitive intensity and quality of opposition.
Performance Expectations Multiplier (2%)
Players at clubs with Champions League pedigree face higher performance standards and tactical complexity, contributing to development and market validation.
CDM Performance Benchmarks
Peak Age: 26-27 years (technical skill and tactical awareness)
Decline Rate: 6.0% per year (technical skills age better than physical attributes)
Optimal Minutes: 2,400-2,500 per season (balance of involvement and recovery)
1-Year Market Value Forecast
Probabilistic model combining age-curve depreciation, value momentum, and playing time factors:
• Age Factor: Midfielder -6.0%/year post-peak, +5%/year pre-peak
• Value Trajectory: Near career peak (>95% of peak value): +3% momentum | Moderate decline: -5%
• Playing Time Factor: Regular starters (+2%), Squad rotation (-2%)
• Forecast Range: ±12-15% confidence interval
Research Foundation
• Dendir (2016): Age-performance curves for young defensive midfielders
• Carmichael et al. (2011): Player depreciation in top leagues
• Franck & Nüesch (2012): Hedonic pricing models for talent valuation
• Szymanski, S. (2015). Money and Soccer: A Soccernomics Guide
Frequently Asked Questions
Common questions about Bundesliga Young Defensive Midfielders in the 2022-23 season
Who are the most valuable Young Defensive Midfielders in the Bundesliga in 2022-23?
The most valuable young defensive midfielder in the Bundesliga in 2022-23 is Aleksandar Pavlovic, who is worth €65.0M and plays for Bayern Munich. The second most valuable is Aljoscha Kemlein (€9.0M, 1.FC Union Berlin), followed by Ryan Fosso (€2.0M, SK Sturm Graz). Our database tracks 6 Bundesliga Young Defensive Midfielders with comprehensive market valuations updated for the 2022-23 season.
How are Bundesliga Young Defensive Midfielders ranked?
Bundesliga Young Defensive Midfielders are ranked by our proprietary Analytical Strength Index, which is specifically calibrated for Young Defensive Midfielders. The score combines six factors: Historical Achievement Index (35%) measuring peak career value, Current Performance Proxy (30%) reflecting recent market signals, Playing Time Utilization (18%) tracking minutes played, Age-Adjusted Performance Curve (12%) using position-specific peak ages, League Quality Coefficient (3%) for Bundesliga competition level, and Club Tier Multiplier (2%) accounting for club prestige. This methodology is grounded in academic research including work by Dendir (2016) on age-performance curves and Franck & Nüesch (2012) on hedonic pricing models.
What age do Young Defensive Midfielders peak?
Midfielders typically peak at age 26-27, with a decline rate of 6.0% per year after peak. Central midfielders require a blend of physicality, technical skill, and tactical awareness. The optimal playing time for peak performance is around 2,400-2,500 minutes per season.
How much does it cost to sign a top young defensive midfielder from the Bundesliga?
Transfer fees for Bundesliga Young Defensive Midfielders vary significantly based on market value, contract length, and club bargaining position. For the top-ranked young defensive midfielder Aleksandar Pavlovic (market value: €65.0M), estimated transfer fees would range from €52.0M to €91.0M depending on contract situation. Players with longer contracts (3+ years) command premium fees (1.2-1.4× market value), while those in the final year may be available for 0.8-1.1× market value. Our fee estimates are derived from historical transfer patterns and contract-clock modifiers validated against actual Bundesliga transactions.
What is the value forecast for Bundesliga Young Defensive Midfielders?
Our 1-year forecast model projects market value changes for Bundesliga Young Defensive Midfielders based on age-curve depreciation, historical trajectory, and playing time adjustments. The forecast combines three factors: age-based appreciation/depreciation (pre-peak players gain ~5% per year toward peak age, post-peak players decline at position-specific rates), market trajectory momentum (comparing current to peak value), and playing time confidence (regular starters receive +2% boost). Forecast confidence intervals account for position-specific volatility-midfielders have ±12-15% volatility. Young players (under 22) and older players (over 32) receive 1.15× uncertainty multipliers due to unpredictable development or decline patterns.
Where does the Bundesliga young defensive midfielder data come from?
Our Bundesliga young defensive midfielder data is sourced from Football Analytics AI's proprietary Transfer Intelligence Database, which aggregates market valuations, player statistics, contract information, and transfer histories from multiple industry sources. Market values are updated regularly based on player performance, injuries, contract negotiations, and transfer market activity. We enhance this data with our proprietary analytics including position-specific scoring algorithms, age-performance curves calibrated to academic research, and statistical forecast models. All data is validated against official Bundesliga sources and updated monthly for the 2022-23 season to ensure accuracy for recruitment and investment decisions.