Best U23 Young Centre-Backs in the MLS
38 players aged 23 or under · ranked by Analytical Strength Index
Best Young Centre-Backs in the MLS (Sep 2026)
Ranked by Analytical Strength Index
Use the search bar below to find specific players, or apply filters to narrow results by club, age range, or market value. Click the chart icon next to any player to view their historical value trajectory and forecast.
Player Rankings
Ranked by Analytical Strength Index. Click any player to view full profile, or click the chart icon to see value history.
Lucas Herrington
Colorado Rapids • 19 years old
€3.9M
€4.5M
+15.6%
Expected: €5.0M
50.3
Tomás Jacob
Atlanta United Football Club • 22 years old
€3.5M
€4.0M
+15.6%
Expected: €4.1M
49.7
Manu Duah
San Diego Football Club • 21 years old
€3.0M
€3.5M
+15.6%
Expected: €3.6M
47.7
Mbekezeli Mbokazi
Chicago Fire Soccer Club • 20 years old
€3.0M
€3.5M
+15.6%
Expected: €3.9M
47.4
Fallou Fall
St. Louis City Soccer Club • 22 years old
€2.4M
€2.8M
+15.6%
Expected: €2.8M
41.6
Nicolás Romero
Minnesota United FC • 22 years old
€2.4M
€2.8M
+15.6%
Expected: €2.8M
41.6
Tomás Avilés
Club de Foot Montréal • 22 years old
€2.2M
€2.5M
+15.6%
Expected: €2.5M
40.2
Olwethu Makhanya
Philadelphia Union • 22 years old
€1.7M
€2.0M
+15.6%
Expected: €2.0M
37.3
Finn Surman
Portland Timbers • 22 years old
€1.6M
€1.8M
+15.6%
Expected: €1.8M
36.0
Iago Teodoro
Orlando City Soccer Club • 21 years old
€1.3M
€1.5M
+15.6%
Expected: €1.5M
33.4
Gilberto Flores
Football Club Cincinnati • 23 years old
€1.0M
€1.2M
+15.6%
Expected: €1.2M
31.2
Juan Jose Arias
Real Salt Lake • 22 years old
€1.0M
€1.2M
+15.6%
Expected: €1.2M
30.9
Morrison Agyemang
Charlotte Football Club • 21 years old
€1.0M
€1.2M
+15.6%
Expected: €1.2M
30.6
Reid Roberts
San Jose Earthquakes • 22 years old
€865K
€1.0M
+15.6%
Expected: €1.0M
28.5
Noah Cobb
Colorado Rapids • 21 years old
€865K
€1.0M
+15.6%
Expected: €1.0M
28.3
Diego Borges
Sporting Kansas City • 21 years old
€865K
€1.0M
+15.6%
Expected: €1.0M
28.3
Jalen Neal
Club de Foot Montréal • 23 years old
€692K
€800K
+15.6%
Expected: €776K
26.0
Ian James
Sporting Kansas City • 18 years old
€692K
€800K
+15.6%
Expected: €931K
24.6
Geiner Martínez
Philadelphia Union • 23 years old
€605K
€700K
+15.6%
Expected: €679K
24.3
Efraín Morales
Club de Foot Montréal • 22 years old
€519K
€600K
+15.6%
Expected: €609K
22.1
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Explore Market Size by Position in MLS
Interactive bubble chart showing predicted 2-year growth vs current age for all MLS Young Centre-Backs. Identify undervalued assets and track market momentum across 22 clubs with €45.1M combined value.
Age Distribution: MLS Young Centre-Backs
The MLS CB market shows 2 distinct age segments, with the largest cohort in the 21-23 bracket (28 players, 74% of market). The 21-23 age group holds the most value at €33.9M, averaging €1.2M per player.
Top Young Centre-Backs by Age Bracket
U21 Years (10 players)
21-23 Years (28 players)
Market Value Distribution
Elite Tier Concentration
The top 4 Young Centre-Backs (11% of players) control €15.5M
Market Tiers
Market structure shows concentrated value with emerging (<€5m) tier representing 100% of the MLS CB pool.
Emerging (<€5M)
Club Distribution: MLS Young Centre-Backs
Among 22 MLS clubs, Colorado Rapids leads with 2 Young Centre-Backs worth €5.5M (averaging €2.8M per player). The top 10 clubs account for 55% of tracked Young Centre-Backs.
Colorado Rapids (2 Young Centre-Backs)
San Diego Football Club (3 Young Centre-Backs)
Atlanta United Football Club (2 Young Centre-Backs)
Club de Foot Montréal (4 Young Centre-Backs)
Scout Tools
Advanced analytics for scouting and recruitment decisions. Each tool provides unique insights into player value, potential, and market dynamics.
Pre-Peak Value Efficiency (PPVE)
Identifies pre-peak players offering exceptional value relative to their age bracket. Higher PPVE = better value.
Understanding Pre-Peak Value Efficiency (PPVE)
Colorado Rapids's Lucas Herrington at 19 years old has the highest Pre-Peak Value Efficiency at 9.00×. That means Lucas Herrington is valued 9.00× higher than the median player in the U21 age bracket-representing exceptional value before reaching peak age.
In second is Chicago Fire Soccer Club's Mbekezeli Mbokazi, who is 20 years old, with a 7.00× PPVE. Third is Tomás Jacob of Atlanta United Football Club, who is 22 years old with a 4.00× PPVE.
How PPVE is calculated: PPVE compares a player's current market value to the median value of all players in their age bracket. A PPVE of 9.00× means the player is worth 800% more than typical players their age-making them high-value targets before they reach peak value.
PPVE by Age Bracket
| Rank | Player | Age | Bracket | Current Value | Bracket Median | PPVE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| #1 | Lucas Herrington Colorado Rapids | 19 | U21 | €4.5M | €500K | 9.00× |
| #2 | Mbekezeli Mbokazi Chicago Fire Soccer Club | 20 | U21 | €3.5M | €500K | 7.00× |
| #3 | Tomás Jacob Atlanta United Football Club | 22 | 21-23 | €4.0M | €1.0M | 4.00× |
| #4 | Manu Duah San Diego Football Club | 21 | 21-23 | €3.5M | €1.0M | 3.50× |
| #5 | Fallou Fall St. Louis City Soccer Club | 22 | 21-23 | €2.8M | €1.0M | 2.80× |
| #6 | Nicolás Romero Minnesota United FC | 22 | 21-23 | €2.8M | €1.0M | 2.80× |
| #7 | Tomás Avilés Club de Foot Montréal | 22 | 21-23 | €2.5M | €1.0M | 2.50× |
| #8 | Olwethu Makhanya Philadelphia Union | 22 | 21-23 | €2.0M | €1.0M | 2.00× |
| #9 | Finn Surman Portland Timbers | 22 | 21-23 | €1.8M | €1.0M | 1.80× |
| #10 | Ian James Sporting Kansas City | 18 | U21 | €800K | €500K | 1.60× |
| #11 | Iago Teodoro Orlando City Soccer Club | 21 | 21-23 | €1.5M | €1.0M | 1.50× |
| #12 | Gilberto Flores Football Club Cincinnati | 23 | 21-23 | €1.2M | €1.0M | 1.20× |
| #13 | Julián Bazán Red Bull New York | 20 | U21 | €600K | €500K | 1.20× |
| #14 | Morrison Agyemang Charlotte Football Club | 21 | 21-23 | €1.2M | €1.0M | 1.20× |
| #15 | Juan Jose Arias Real Salt Lake | 22 | 21-23 | €1.2M | €1.0M | 1.20× |
| #16 | Andrei Chirilă Football Club Cincinnati | 18 | U21 | €500K | €500K | 1.00× |
| #17 | Diego Borges Sporting Kansas City | 21 | 21-23 | €1.0M | €1.0M | 1.00× |
| #18 | Reid Roberts San Jose Earthquakes | 22 | 21-23 | €1.0M | €1.0M | 1.00× |
| #19 | Noah Cobb Colorado Rapids | 21 | 21-23 | €1.0M | €1.0M | 1.00× |
| #20 | Osvald Søe San Diego Football Club | 20 | U21 | €500K | €500K | 1.00× |
Return-to-Peak Potential (RPP)
Recovery potential from current value to forecasted peak. Shows how much upside remains for players approaching their prime.
Understanding Return-to-Peak Potential (RPP)
Football Club Cincinnati's Andrei Chirilă at 18 years old has the highest Return-to-Peak Potential at +52%. That means Ian James is projected to appreciate 52% as they reach their peak age in 8 years-representing significant upside before entering their prime.
In second is Sporting Kansas City's Ian James, who is 18 years old, with a +52% RPP (8 years to peak). Third is Stuart Hawkins of Seattle Sounders FC, who is 19 years old with a +48% RPP (7 years to peak).
How RPP is calculated: RPP compares a player's current market value to their forecasted peak value, calculating the percentage appreciation potential. A 52% RPP means the player is expected to gain 52% value as they enter their prime-making them excellent growth investments.
Recovery Potential by Player
| Rank | Player | Age | Years to Peak | Current | Peak Forecast | RPP % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| #1 | Andrei Chirilă Football Club Cincinnati | 18 | 8 | €500K | €1.0M | +52% |
| #2 | Ian James Sporting Kansas City | 18 | 8 | €800K | €1.7M | +52% |
| #3 | Stuart Hawkins Seattle Sounders FC | 19 | 7 | €175K | €336K | +48% |
| #4 | Christopher Applewhite Nashville SC | 19 | 7 | €150K | €288K | +48% |
| #5 | Finn Sundstrom Philadelphia Union | 19 | 7 | €200K | €384K | +48% |
| #6 | Lucas Herrington Colorado Rapids | 19 | 7 | €4.5M | €8.6M | +48% |
| #7 | Mbekezeli Mbokazi Chicago Fire Soccer Club | 20 | 6 | €3.5M | €6.3M | +44% |
| #8 | Lazar Stefanović Toronto FC | 20 | 6 | €300K | €536K | +44% |
| #9 | Julián Bazán Red Bull New York | 20 | 6 | €600K | €1.1M | +44% |
| #10 | Osvald Søe San Diego Football Club | 20 | 6 | €500K | €894K | +44% |
| #11 | Ethan Kohler New England Revolution | 21 | 5 | €500K | €831K | +40% |
| #12 | Diego Borges Sporting Kansas City | 21 | 5 | €1.0M | €1.7M | +40% |
| #13 | Álvaro Augusto FC Dallas | 21 | 5 | €200K | €332K | +40% |
| #14 | Morrison Agyemang Charlotte Football Club | 21 | 5 | €1.2M | €2.0M | +40% |
| #15 | Manu Duah San Diego Football Club | 21 | 5 | €3.5M | €5.8M | +40% |
| #16 | Noah Cobb Colorado Rapids | 21 | 5 | €1.0M | €1.7M | +40% |
| #17 | Iago Teodoro Orlando City Soccer Club | 21 | 5 | €1.5M | €2.5M | +40% |
| #18 | Fallou Fall St. Louis City Soccer Club | 22 | 4 | €2.8M | €4.3M | +35% |
| #19 | Thomas Williams Nashville SC | 22 | 4 | €175K | €270K | +35% |
| #20 | Nicolás Romero Minnesota United FC | 22 | 4 | €2.8M | €4.3M | +35% |
Risk-Adjusted Upside (RAU)
Upside potential weighted against forecast uncertainty. Higher RAU = better risk-reward profile.
Understanding Risk-Adjusted Upside (RAU)
Football Club Cincinnati's Andrei Chirilă has the highest Risk-Adjusted Upside at 61.2. That means Andrei Chirilă has 16% upside potential with only 0% forecast uncertainty-representing excellent risk-reward for value appreciation.
In second is Sporting Kansas City's Ian James with a 61.2 RAU (16% upside, 0% uncertainty). Third is Stuart Hawkins of Seattle Sounders FC with a 40.4 RAU (10% upside, 0% uncertainty).
How RAU is calculated: RAU divides upside potential by forecast uncertainty (RAU = Upside % ÷ Uncertainty %). A RAU of 61.2 means the upside is 61.2× greater than the uncertainty-making it a high-confidence growth opportunity. Target RAU ≥2.0 for balanced risk-reward.
Risk-Adjusted Upside by Player
| Rank | Player | Expected | Range | Upside % | RAU |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| #1 | Andrei Chirilă Football Club Cincinnati | €582K | €515K-649K | +16% | 61.2 |
| #2 | Ian James Sporting Kansas City | €931K | €824K-1.0M | +16% | 61.2 |
| #3 | Stuart Hawkins Seattle Sounders FC | €193K | €171K-215K | +10% | 40.4 |
| #4 | Osvald Søe San Diego Football Club | €551K | €488K-615K | +10% | 40.4 |
| #5 | Lazar Stefanović Toronto FC | €331K | €293K-369K | +10% | 40.4 |
| #6 | Julián Bazán Red Bull New York | €662K | €585K-738K | +10% | 40.4 |
| #7 | Christopher Applewhite Nashville SC | €165K | €146K-184K | +10% | 40.4 |
| #8 | Mbekezeli Mbokazi Chicago Fire Soccer Club | €3.9M | €3.4M-4.3M | +10% | 40.4 |
| #9 | Finn Sundstrom Philadelphia Union | €221K | €195K-246K | +10% | 40.4 |
| #10 | Lucas Herrington Colorado Rapids | €5.0M | €4.4M-5.5M | +10% | 40.4 |
| #11 | Fallou Fall St. Louis City Soccer Club | €2.8M | €2.6M-3.1M | +1% | 7.0 |
| #12 | Thomas Williams Nashville SC | €178K | €160K-195K | +1% | 7.0 |
| #13 | Nicolás Romero Minnesota United FC | €2.8M | €2.6M-3.1M | +1% | 7.0 |
| #14 | Tomás Avilés Club de Foot Montréal | €2.5M | €2.3M-2.8M | +1% | 7.0 |
| #15 | Nikola Marković D.C. United | €304K | €274K-335K | +1% | 7.0 |
| #16 | Zane Monlouis Toronto FC | €609K | €548K-669K | +1% | 7.0 |
| #17 | Efraín Morales Club de Foot Montréal | €609K | €548K-669K | +1% | 7.0 |
| #18 | Juan Jose Arias Real Salt Lake | €1.2M | €1.1M-1.3M | +1% | 7.0 |
| #19 | Brandan Craig Club de Foot Montréal | €406K | €365K-446K | +1% | 7.0 |
| #20 | Olwethu Makhanya Philadelphia Union | €2.0M | €1.8M-2.2M | +1% | 7.0 |
Roster Pressure Index (RPI)
Squad depth pressure based on Z-score distribution. Negative RPI = thin depth, positive = deep roster.
What This Shows
Z-Score explained: Measures how many standard deviations a player's strength is from the position average. Z-Score = 0 means average, +1.0 is one standard deviation above average, -1.0 is below average.
How to use: RPI < -1.0 indicates critical depth shortage. These positions need immediate reinforcement. RPI > +1.0 suggests strong depth, allowing selective, high-value additions only.
Current market: young centre-back position shows strong depth (avg Z-score: 0.00). RPI: 0.00.
Position Depth Analysis
Highest Z-Scores
Lowest Z-Scores
Age-Share Concentration (ASC)
Identifies players capturing disproportionate value relative to age group representation. Positive ASC = value concentration.
Understanding Age-Share Concentration (ASC)
New England Revolution's Ethan Kohler in the 21-23 age bracket has the highest Age-Share Concentration at +1.5%. That means Tomás Jacob captures 75.1% of total market value while representing only 73.7% of players in their age group-showing dominant elite status.
In second is Football Club Cincinnati's Gilberto Flores with a +1.5% ASC (75.1% value share vs 73.7% player share in 21-23 bracket). Third is Iago Teodoro of Orlando City Soccer Club with a +1.5% ASC (75.1% value vs 73.7% players in 21-23 bracket).
How ASC is calculated: ASC = (% of total value) - (% of total players) in age bracket. A +1.5% ASC means the player captures 1.5% more market value than their numerical representation-indicating marquee status. ASC > +15% = elite dominance, ASC < -15% = potential value targets.
Value Concentration by Player
| Rank | Player | Age Bracket | Value Share | Player Share | ASC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| #1 | Ethan Kohler New England Revolution | 21-23 | 75.1% | 73.7% | +1.5% |
| #2 | Gilberto Flores Football Club Cincinnati | 21-23 | 75.1% | 73.7% | +1.5% |
| #3 | Iago Teodoro Orlando City Soccer Club | 21-23 | 75.1% | 73.7% | +1.5% |
| #4 | Fallou Fall St. Louis City Soccer Club | 21-23 | 75.1% | 73.7% | +1.5% |
| #5 | Tomás Avilés Club de Foot Montréal | 21-23 | 75.1% | 73.7% | +1.5% |
| #6 | Olwethu Makhanya Philadelphia Union | 21-23 | 75.1% | 73.7% | +1.5% |
| #7 | Diego Borges Sporting Kansas City | 21-23 | 75.1% | 73.7% | +1.5% |
| #8 | Álvaro Augusto FC Dallas | 21-23 | 75.1% | 73.7% | +1.5% |
| #9 | Morrison Agyemang Charlotte Football Club | 21-23 | 75.1% | 73.7% | +1.5% |
| #10 | Geiner Martínez Philadelphia Union | 21-23 | 75.1% | 73.7% | +1.5% |
| #11 | Manu Duah San Diego Football Club | 21-23 | 75.1% | 73.7% | +1.5% |
| #12 | Max Floriani San Jose Earthquakes | 21-23 | 75.1% | 73.7% | +1.5% |
| #13 | Reid Roberts San Jose Earthquakes | 21-23 | 75.1% | 73.7% | +1.5% |
| #14 | Ian Pilcher San Diego Football Club | 21-23 | 75.1% | 73.7% | +1.5% |
| #15 | Nikola Marković D.C. United | 21-23 | 75.1% | 73.7% | +1.5% |
| #16 | Zane Monlouis Toronto FC | 21-23 | 75.1% | 73.7% | +1.5% |
| #17 | Jalen Neal Club de Foot Montréal | 21-23 | 75.1% | 73.7% | +1.5% |
| #18 | Finn Surman Portland Timbers | 21-23 | 75.1% | 73.7% | +1.5% |
| #19 | Brandan Craig Club de Foot Montréal | 21-23 | 75.1% | 73.7% | +1.5% |
| #20 | Efraín Morales Club de Foot Montréal | 21-23 | 75.1% | 73.7% | +1.5% |
Buy-Now vs Wait-List Map
Categorizes players by age position and upside potential to guide timing of acquisition.
What This Shows
How to use:"Buy Now - High Upside" = immediate priority targets."Watch List" = monitor for 6-12 months."Peak" = pay premium for proven performers."Aging" = short-term depth only.
Current market: 2 immediate targets, 8 standard acquisitions, 28 watch-list prospects, 0 at peak.
BUY NOW - High Upside
WATCH LIST - High Upside
BUY NOW - Medium Upside
PEAK Players
No players in this category
Price vs Peer Z-Score
IQR-based pricing analysis relative to position peers. Identifies over/undervalued players vs market.
What This Shows
How to use: Z-score < -1.5 = significantly undervalued (potential bargain). Z-score > +1.5 = premium pricing (requires strong justification). Within ±1.0 = fair market value.
Current market: Position median is €1.0M. 0 undervalued, 4 premium.
Value Positioning vs Peers
| Player | Market Value | Position Median | Z-Score | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Thomas Williams Nashville SC | €175K | €700K | -0.63 | Good Value |
Álvaro Augusto FC Dallas | €200K | €700K | -0.62 | Good Value |
Christopher Applewhite Nashville SC | €150K | €700K | -0.58 | Good Value |
Stuart Hawkins Seattle Sounders FC | €175K | €700K | -0.54 | Good Value |
Nikola Marković D.C. United | €300K | €700K | -0.54 | Good Value |
Mamadou Mbacke St. Louis City Soccer Club | €300K | €700K | -0.54 | Good Value |
Finn Sundstrom Philadelphia Union | €200K | €700K | -0.50 | Fair Value |
Max Floriani San Jose Earthquakes | €400K | €700K | -0.46 | Fair Value |
Brandan Craig Club de Foot Montréal | €400K | €700K | -0.46 | Fair Value |
Matthew Edwards Atlanta United Football Club | €450K | €700K | -0.42 | Fair Value |
Ethan Kohler New England Revolution | €500K | €700K | -0.38 | Fair Value |
Ian Pilcher San Diego Football Club | €500K | €700K | -0.38 | Fair Value |
Nolan Miller Orlando City Soccer Club | €500K | €700K | -0.38 | Fair Value |
Lazar Stefanović Toronto FC | €300K | €700K | -0.33 | Fair Value |
Zane Monlouis Toronto FC | €600K | €700K | -0.31 | Fair Value |
Efraín Morales Club de Foot Montréal | €600K | €700K | -0.31 | Fair Value |
Geiner Martínez Philadelphia Union | €700K | €700K | -0.23 | Fair Value |
Jalen Neal Club de Foot Montréal | €800K | €700K | -0.15 | Fair Value |
Andrei Chirilă Football Club Cincinnati | €500K | €700K | 0.00 | Fair Value |
Diego Borges Sporting Kansas City | €1.0M | €700K | 0.00 | Fair Value |
Market Overview: MLS Young Centre-Backs 2023-24
Our database tracked 38 MLS Young Centre-Backs in the 2023-24 season, representing 22 clubs with a combined market value of €45.1M. The average market value for MLS Young Centre-Backs was €1.2M, with the average age at 21 years old.
The most valuable young centre-back in the MLS was Lucas Herrington, worth €4.5M and played for Colorado Rapids at 19 years old. The top 5 Young Centre-Backs averaged €3.7M in market value, including Tomás Jacob and Manu Duah.
Age distribution showed the youngest tracked young centre-back was Ian James (18 years, Sporting Kansas City, €800K), while the oldest was Gilberto Flores (23 years, Football Club Cincinnati, €1.2M). Research shows Young Centre-Backs typically peak at age 28.
Historical analysis showed 31 Young Centre-Backs (82%) increased in market value over the following 12 months based on age-curve trajectories, then-current performance trends, and playing time analysis. The MLS market for Young Centre-Backs remained actively developing with emerging talent in the 2023-24 season.
How We Rank MLS Young Centre-Backs
Our Analytical Strength Index is calibrated specifically for young centre-backs, using position-specific age curves and playing time benchmarks. The model draws from academic research on player valuation (Franck & Nüesch, 2012) and age-performance curves (Dendir, 2016).
Scoring Components for CB
Historical Achievement Index (35%)
Peak career market value for MLS young centre-backs, reflecting proven track record and reputation. Uses log-scale to account for exponential value distribution at elite level.
Current Performance Proxy (30%)
Present market value for MLS young centre-backs, capturing recent form, injuries, and current performance level. Weighted to reflect age-related depreciation patterns.
Playing Time Utilization (18%)
Defenders with 2,500+ minutes score highest, indicating regular starting role and sustained performance.
Age-Adjusted Performance Curve (12%)
Defenders peak at 28 with 5.0%/year decline rate. Pre-peak players score higher on development trajectory.
Competition Level Adjustment (3%)
MLS competition level factored into comparative strength assessment.
Performance Expectations Multiplier (2%)
Players at clubs with Champions League pedigree face higher performance standards and tactical complexity, contributing to development and market validation.
CB Performance Benchmarks
Peak Age: 28 years (balance of physicality and tactical intelligence)
Decline Rate: Widening steps, not a flat rate: about -5% at 29, -10% at 30, steeper from 31 (positioning offsets pace loss)
Optimal Minutes: 2,500 per season (regular starter with rotation management)
1-Year Market Value Forecast
Probabilistic model combining age-curve depreciation, value momentum, and playing time factors:
• Age Factor: Compounding and banded around a peak of 28: +25%/year through age 21, +15% at 22-23, +10% up to the year before peak, then -5%, -10% and steeper with each later band. Growth is damped above €30M.
• Value Trajectory: Near career peak (>95% of peak value): +3% momentum | Moderate decline: -5%
• Playing Time Factor: Regular starters (+2%), Squad rotation (-2%)
• Forecast Range: ±10% confidence interval
Research Foundation
• Dendir (2016): Age-performance curves for young centre-backs
• Carmichael et al. (2011): Player depreciation in top leagues
• Franck & Nüesch (2012): Hedonic pricing models for talent valuation
• Szymanski, S. (2015). Money and Soccer: A Soccernomics Guide
Frequently Asked Questions
Common questions about MLS Young Centre-Backs in the 2023-24 season
Who are the most valuable Young Centre-Backs in the MLS in 2023-24?
The most valuable young centre-back in the MLS in 2023-24 is Lucas Herrington, who is worth €4.5M and plays for Colorado Rapids. The second most valuable is Tomás Jacob (€4.0M, Atlanta United Football Club), followed by Manu Duah (€3.5M, San Diego Football Club). Our database tracks 38 MLS Young Centre-Backs with comprehensive market valuations updated for the 2023-24 season.
How are MLS Young Centre-Backs ranked?
MLS Young Centre-Backs are ranked by our proprietary Analytical Strength Index, which is specifically calibrated for Young Centre-Backs. The score combines six factors: Historical Achievement Index (35%) measuring peak career value, Current Performance Proxy (30%) reflecting recent market signals, Playing Time Utilization (18%) tracking minutes played, Age-Adjusted Performance Curve (12%) using position-specific peak ages, League Quality Coefficient (3%) for MLS competition level, and Club Tier Multiplier (2%) accounting for club prestige. This methodology is grounded in academic research including work by Dendir (2016) on age-performance curves and Franck & Nüesch (2012) on hedonic pricing models.
What age do Young Centre-Backs peak?
Defenders typically peak at age 28. In our valuation model, value then falls in widening steps rather than at a flat annual rate: around -5% at 29, -10% at 30, and -25% or more from 31. Research shows defenders balance physical attributes with tactical intelligence, allowing them to maintain high performance through their late 20s. The optimal playing time for peak performance is around 2,500 minutes per season.
How much does it cost to sign a top young centre-back from the MLS?
Transfer fees for MLS Young Centre-Backs vary significantly based on market value, contract length, and club bargaining position. For the top-ranked young centre-back Lucas Herrington (market value: €4.5M), estimated transfer fees would range from €3.6M to €6.3M depending on contract situation. Players with longer contracts (3+ years) command premium fees (1.2-1.4× market value), while those in the final year may be available for 0.8-1.1× market value. Our fee estimates are derived from historical transfer patterns and contract-clock modifiers validated against actual MLS transactions.
What is the value forecast for MLS Young Centre-Backs?
Our 1-year forecast model projects market value changes for MLS Young Centre-Backs based on age-curve depreciation, historical trajectory, and playing time adjustments. The forecast combines three factors: age-based appreciation/depreciation (pre-peak players compound gains toward their position's peak age, up to +25% a year through age 21 and easing as they approach it, while post-peak players fall in widening steps), market trajectory momentum (comparing current to peak value), and playing time confidence (regular starters receive +2% boost). Forecast confidence intervals account for position-specific volatility-defenders have ±10% volatility. Young players (under 22) and older players (over 32) receive 1.15× uncertainty multipliers due to unpredictable development or decline patterns.
Where does the MLS young centre-back data come from?
Our MLS young centre-back data is sourced from Football Analytics AI's proprietary Transfer Intelligence Database, which aggregates market valuations, player statistics, contract information, and transfer histories from multiple industry sources. Market values are updated regularly based on player performance, injuries, contract negotiations, and transfer market activity. We enhance this data with our proprietary analytics including position-specific scoring algorithms, age-performance curves calibrated to academic research, and statistical forecast models. All data is validated against official MLS sources and updated monthly for the 2023-24 season to ensure accuracy for recruitment and investment decisions.