Best U23 Young Defensive Midfielders in the Bundesliga
9 players aged 23 or under · ranked by Analytical Strength Score
Best Young Defensive Midfielders in the Bundesliga (Apr 2026)
Ranked by Analytical Strength Score
Market Overview: Bundesliga Young Defensive Midfielders 2023-24
Our database tracked 9 Bundesliga Young Defensive Midfielders in the 2023-24 season, representing 9 clubs with a combined market value of €77.7M. The average market value for Bundesliga Young Defensive Midfielders was €8.6M, with the average age at 21.3 years old.
The most valuable young defensive midfielder in the Bundesliga was Aleksandar Pavlovic, worth €55.0M and played for Bayern Munich at 21 years old. The top 5 Young Defensive Midfielders averaged €15.3M in market value, including Aljoscha Kemlein and Eric Martel.
Age distribution showed the youngest tracked young defensive midfielder was Niklas Swider (19 years, Borussia Mönchengladbach, €250K), while the oldest was Eric Martel (23 years, 1.FC Köln, €6.0M). Research shows Young Defensive Midfielders typically peak at age 26-27.
Historical analysis showed 9 Young Defensive Midfielders (100%) increased in market value over the following 12 months based on age-curve trajectories, then-current performance trends, and playing time analysis. The Bundesliga market for Young Defensive Midfielders remained actively developing with emerging talent in the 2023-24 season.
💡 Use the search bar below to find specific players, or apply filters to narrow results by club, age range, or market value. Click the chart icon next to any player to view their historical value trajectory and forecast.
Explore Market Size by Position in Bundesliga
Interactive bubble chart showing predicted 2-year growth vs current age for all Bundesliga Young Defensive Midfielders. Identify undervalued assets and track market momentum across 9 clubs with €77.7M combined value.
Age Distribution: Bundesliga Young Defensive Midfielders
The Bundesliga CDM market shows 2 distinct age segments, with the largest cohort in the 21-23 bracket (7 players, 78% of market). The 21-23 age group holds the most value at €77.3M, averaging €11.0M per player.
Top Young Defensive Midfielders by Age Bracket
U21 Years (2 players)
21-23 Years (7 players)
Market Value Distribution
Elite Tier Concentration
The top 1 Young Defensive Midfielders (11% of players) control €55.0M
Market Tiers
Market structure shows distributed value with elite (€50m+) tier representing 11% of the Bundesliga CDM pool.
Elite (€50M+)
Mid (€5-15M)
Emerging (<€5M)
Club Distribution: Bundesliga Young Defensive Midfielders
Among 9 Bundesliga clubs, Bayern Munich leads with 1 Young Defensive Midfielders worth €55.0M (averaging €55.0M per player). The top 10 clubs account for 100% of tracked Young Defensive Midfielders.
Bayern Munich (1 Young Defensive Midfielders)
1.FC Union Berlin (1 Young Defensive Midfielders)
1.FC Köln (1 Young Defensive Midfielders)
Red Bull Salzburg (1 Young Defensive Midfielders)
Player Rankings
Ranked by APE Strength Score. Click any player to view full profile, or click the chart icon to see value history.
Aleksandar Pavlovic
Bayern Munich • 21 years old
€47.6M
€55.0M
+15.6%
Expected: €65.6M
90.2
Aljoscha Kemlein
1.FC Union Berlin • 21 years old
€6.1M
€7.0M
+15.6%
Expected: €8.0M
56.7
Eric Martel
1.FC Köln • 23 years old
€5.2M
€6.0M
+15.6%
Expected: €6.4M
55.6
Lucas Gourna-Douath
Red Bull Salzburg • 22 years old
€5.2M
€6.0M
+15.6%
Expected: €6.6M
54.9
Skelly Alvero
SV Werder Bremen • 23 years old
€2.2M
€2.5M
+15.6%
Expected: €2.6M
40.9
Sadik Fofana
Grazer AK 1902 • 22 years old
€519K
€600K
+15.6%
Expected: €662K
22.1
Niklas Swider
Borussia Mönchengladbach • 19 years old
€216K
€250K
+15.6%
Expected: €309K
10.0
Marwin Schmitz
FC St. Pauli • 19 years old
€173K
€200K
+15.6%
Expected: €247K
7.2
Mahmut Kücüksahin
FC Augsburg • 22 years old
€151K
€175K
+15.6%
Expected: €193K
6.8
Scout Tools
Advanced analytics for scouting and recruitment decisions. Each tool provides unique insights into player value, potential, and market dynamics.
Pre-Peak Value Efficiency (PPVE)
Identifies pre-peak players offering exceptional value relative to their age bracket. Higher PPVE = better value.
Understanding Pre-Peak Value Efficiency (PPVE)
Bayern Munich's Aleksandar Pavlovic at 21 years old has the highest Pre-Peak Value Efficiency at 9.17×. That means Aleksandar Pavlovic is valued 9.17× higher than the median player in the 21-23 age bracket—representing exceptional value before reaching peak age.
In second is 1.FC Union Berlin's Aljoscha Kemlein, who is 21 years old, with a 1.17× PPVE. Third is Niklas Swider of Borussia Mönchengladbach, who is 19 years old with a 1.00× PPVE.
How PPVE is calculated: PPVE compares a player's current market value to the median value of all players in their age bracket. A PPVE of 9.17× means the player is worth 817% more than typical players their age—making them high-value targets before they reach peak value.
PPVE by Age Bracket
| Rank | Player | Age | Bracket | Current Value | Bracket Median | PPVE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| #1 | Aleksandar Pavlovic Bayern Munich | 21 | 21-23 | €55.0M | €6.0M | 9.17× |
| #2 | Aljoscha Kemlein 1.FC Union Berlin | 21 | 21-23 | €7.0M | €6.0M | 1.17× |
| #3 | Niklas Swider Borussia Mönchengladbach | 19 | U21 | €250K | €250K | 1.00× |
| #4 | Eric Martel 1.FC Köln | 23 | 21-23 | €6.0M | €6.0M | 1.00× |
| #5 | Lucas Gourna-Douath Red Bull Salzburg | 22 | 21-23 | €6.0M | €6.0M | 1.00× |
| #6 | Marwin Schmitz FC St. Pauli | 19 | U21 | €200K | €250K | 0.80× |
| #7 | Skelly Alvero SV Werder Bremen | 23 | 21-23 | €2.5M | €6.0M | 0.42× |
| #8 | Sadik Fofana Grazer AK 1902 | 22 | 21-23 | €600K | €6.0M | 0.10× |
| #9 | Mahmut Kücüksahin FC Augsburg | 22 | 21-23 | €175K | €6.0M | 0.03× |
Return-to-Peak Potential (RPP)
Recovery potential from current value to forecasted peak. Shows how much upside remains for players approaching their prime.
Understanding Return-to-Peak Potential (RPP)
FC St. Pauli's Marwin Schmitz at 19 years old has the highest Return-to-Peak Potential at +44%. That means Marwin Schmitz is projected to appreciate 44% as they reach their peak age in 7 years—representing significant upside before entering their prime.
In second is Borussia Mönchengladbach's Niklas Swider, who is 19 years old, with a +44% RPP (7 years to peak). Third is Aljoscha Kemlein of 1.FC Union Berlin, who is 21 years old with a +35% RPP (5 years to peak).
How RPP is calculated: RPP compares a player's current market value to their forecasted peak value, calculating the percentage appreciation potential. A 44% RPP means the player is expected to gain 44% value as they enter their prime—making them excellent growth investments.
Recovery Potential by Player
| Rank | Player | Age | Years to Peak | Current | Peak Forecast | RPP % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| #1 | Marwin Schmitz FC St. Pauli | 19 | 7 | €200K | €357K | +44% |
| #2 | Niklas Swider Borussia Mönchengladbach | 19 | 7 | €250K | €447K | +44% |
| #3 | Aljoscha Kemlein 1.FC Union Berlin | 21 | 5 | €7.0M | €10.8M | +35% |
| #4 | Aleksandar Pavlovic Bayern Munich | 21 | 5 | €55.0M | €85.0M | +35% |
| #5 | Mahmut Kücüksahin FC Augsburg | 22 | 4 | €175K | €252K | +30% |
| #6 | Sadik Fofana Grazer AK 1902 | 22 | 4 | €600K | €862K | +30% |
| #7 | Lucas Gourna-Douath Red Bull Salzburg | 22 | 4 | €6.0M | €8.6M | +30% |
| #8 | Skelly Alvero SV Werder Bremen | 23 | 3 | €2.5M | €3.3M | +25% |
| #9 | Eric Martel 1.FC Köln | 23 | 3 | €6.0M | €8.0M | +25% |
Risk-Adjusted Upside (RAU)
Upside potential weighted against forecast uncertainty. Higher RAU = better risk-reward profile.
Understanding Risk-Adjusted Upside (RAU)
Borussia Mönchengladbach's Niklas Swider has the highest Risk-Adjusted Upside at 68.9. That means Niklas Swider has 23% upside potential with only 0% forecast uncertainty—representing excellent risk-reward for value appreciation.
In second is FC St. Pauli's Marwin Schmitz with a 68.9 RAU (23% upside, 0% uncertainty). Third is Aleksandar Pavlovic of Bayern Munich with a 58.7 RAU (19% upside, 0% uncertainty).
How RAU is calculated: RAU divides upside potential by forecast uncertainty (RAU = Upside % ÷ Uncertainty %). A RAU of 68.9 means the upside is 68.9× greater than the uncertainty—making it a high-confidence growth opportunity. Target RAU ≥2.0 for balanced risk-reward.
Risk-Adjusted Upside by Player
| Rank | Player | Expected | Range | Upside % | RAU |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| #1 | Niklas Swider Borussia Mönchengladbach | €309K | €266K-351K | +23% | 68.9 |
| #2 | Marwin Schmitz FC St. Pauli | €247K | €213K-281K | +23% | 68.9 |
| #3 | Aleksandar Pavlovic Bayern Munich | €65.6M | €56.6M-74.7M | +19% | 58.7 |
| #4 | Aljoscha Kemlein 1.FC Union Berlin | €8.0M | €6.9M-9.1M | +15% | 46.3 |
| #5 | Mahmut Kücüksahin FC Augsburg | €193K | €170K-216K | +10% | 38.7 |
| #6 | Lucas Gourna-Douath Red Bull Salzburg | €6.6M | €5.8M-7.4M | +10% | 38.7 |
| #7 | Sadik Fofana Grazer AK 1902 | €662K | €582K-741K | +10% | 38.7 |
| #8 | Eric Martel 1.FC Köln | €6.4M | €5.6M-7.1M | +6% | 23.0 |
| #9 | Skelly Alvero SV Werder Bremen | €2.6M | €2.3M-3.0M | +6% | 23.0 |
Roster Pressure Index (RPI)
Squad depth pressure based on Z-score distribution. Negative RPI = thin depth, positive = deep roster.
What This Shows
Z-Score explained: Measures how many standard deviations a player's strength is from the position average. Z-Score = 0 means average, +1.0 is one standard deviation above average, -1.0 is below average.
How to use: RPI < -1.0 indicates critical depth shortage. These positions need immediate reinforcement. RPI > +1.0 suggests strong depth, allowing selective, high-value additions only.
Current market: young defensive midfielder position shows weak depth (avg Z-score: -0.00). RPI: -0.00.
Position Depth Analysis
Highest Z-Scores
Lowest Z-Scores
Age-Share Concentration (ASC)
Identifies players capturing disproportionate value relative to age group representation. Positive ASC = value concentration.
Understanding Age-Share Concentration (ASC)
FC St. Pauli's Marwin Schmitz in the U21 age bracket has the highest Age-Share Concentration at +-21.6%. That means Niklas Swider captures 0.6% of total market value while representing only 22.2% of players in their age group—showing dominant elite status.
In second is Borussia Mönchengladbach's Niklas Swider with a +-21.6% ASC (0.6% value share vs 22.2% player share in U21 bracket). Third is Eric Martel of 1.FC Köln with a +21.6% ASC (99.4% value vs 77.8% players in 21-23 bracket).
How ASC is calculated: ASC = (% of total value) - (% of total players) in age bracket. A +-21.6% ASC means the player captures -21.6% more market value than their numerical representation—indicating marquee status. ASC > +15% = elite dominance, ASC < -15% = potential value targets.
Value Concentration by Player
| Rank | Player | Age Bracket | Value Share | Player Share | ASC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| #1 | Marwin Schmitz FC St. Pauli | U21 | 0.6% | 22.2% | -21.6% |
| #2 | Niklas Swider Borussia Mönchengladbach | U21 | 0.6% | 22.2% | -21.6% |
| #3 | Eric Martel 1.FC Köln | 21-23 | 99.4% | 77.8% | +21.6% |
| #4 | Lucas Gourna-Douath Red Bull Salzburg | 21-23 | 99.4% | 77.8% | +21.6% |
| #5 | Sadik Fofana Grazer AK 1902 | 21-23 | 99.4% | 77.8% | +21.6% |
| #6 | Aljoscha Kemlein 1.FC Union Berlin | 21-23 | 99.4% | 77.8% | +21.6% |
| #7 | Mahmut Kücüksahin FC Augsburg | 21-23 | 99.4% | 77.8% | +21.6% |
| #8 | Aleksandar Pavlovic Bayern Munich | 21-23 | 99.4% | 77.8% | +21.6% |
| #9 | Skelly Alvero SV Werder Bremen | 21-23 | 99.4% | 77.8% | +21.6% |
Buy-Now vs Wait-List Map
Categorizes players by age position and upside potential to guide timing of acquisition.
What This Shows
How to use: "Buy Now - High Upside" = immediate priority targets. "Watch List" = monitor for 6-12 months. "Peak" = pay premium for proven performers. "Aging" = short-term depth only.
Current market: 3 immediate targets, 6 standard acquisitions, 0 watch-list prospects, 0 at peak.
BUY NOW - High Upside
WATCH LIST - High Upside
No players in this category
BUY NOW - Medium Upside
PEAK Players
No players in this category
Price vs Peer Z-Score
IQR-based pricing analysis relative to position peers. Identifies over/undervalued players vs market.
What This Shows
How to use: Z-score < -1.5 = significantly undervalued (potential bargain). Z-score > +1.5 = premium pricing (requires strong justification). Within ±1.0 = fair market value.
Current market: Position median is €55.0M. 0 undervalued, 0 premium.
Value Positioning vs Peers
| Player | Market Value | Position Median | Z-Score | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Marwin Schmitz FC St. Pauli | €200K | €2.5M | -1.00 | Good Value |
Mahmut Kücüksahin FC Augsburg | €175K | €2.5M | -0.18 | Fair Value |
Niklas Swider Borussia Mönchengladbach | €250K | €2.5M | 0.00 | Fair Value |
Eric Martel 1.FC Köln | €6.0M | €2.5M | 0.00 | Fair Value |
Lucas Gourna-Douath Red Bull Salzburg | €6.0M | €2.5M | 0.00 | Fair Value |
Sadik Fofana Grazer AK 1902 | €600K | €2.5M | 0.00 | Fair Value |
Aleksandar Pavlovic Bayern Munich | €55.0M | €2.5M | 0.00 | Fair Value |
Skelly Alvero SV Werder Bremen | €2.5M | €2.5M | +0.82 | Above Market |
Aljoscha Kemlein 1.FC Union Berlin | €7.0M | €2.5M | +1.00 | Above Market |