Best U23 Young Centre-Backs in the MLS
38 players aged 23 or under · ranked by Analytical Strength Index
Best Young Centre-Backs in the MLS (Oct 2026)
38 players tracked across 22 clubs. Updated October 2026.
Ranked by Analytical Strength Index
Use the search bar below to find specific players, or apply filters to narrow results by club, age range, or market value. Click the chart icon next to any player to view their historical value trajectory and forecast.
Player Rankings
Ranked by Analytical Strength Index. Click any player to view full profile, or click the chart icon to see value history.
Lucas Herrington
Colorado Rapids • 19 years old
€3.9M
€4.5M
+15.6%
Expected: €5.0M
50.3
Tomás Jacob
Atlanta United Football Club • 22 years old
€3.5M
€4.0M
+15.6%
Expected: €4.1M
49.7
Manu Duah
San Diego Football Club • 21 years old
€3.0M
€3.5M
+15.6%
Expected: €3.6M
47.7
Mbekezeli Mbokazi
Chicago Fire Soccer Club • 21 years old
€3.0M
€3.5M
+15.6%
Expected: €3.6M
47.7
Nicolás Romero
Minnesota United FC • 22 years old
€2.4M
€2.8M
+15.6%
Expected: €2.8M
41.6
Fallou Fall
St. Louis City Soccer Club • 22 years old
€2.4M
€2.8M
+15.6%
41.6
Tomás Avilés
Club de Foot Montréal • 22 years old
€2.2M
€2.5M
+15.6%
40.2
Olwethu Makhanya
Philadelphia Union • 22 years old
€1.7M
€2.0M
+15.6%
37.3
Finn Surman
Portland Timbers • 23 years old
€1.6M
€1.8M
+15.6%
36.3
Iago Teodoro
Orlando City Soccer Club • 21 years old
€1.3M
€1.5M
+15.6%
33.4
Sign up free to see the full ranking of 38 cb players.
Sign up freeLucas Herrington
Colorado Rapids · 19 years old
50.3
ASI
Current Value
€4.5M
% Change
+15.6%
1yr Forecast Range
€4.4M - €5.5M
Tomás Jacob
Atlanta United Football Club · 22 years old
49.7
ASI
Current Value
€4.0M
% Change
+15.6%
1yr Forecast Range
€3.7M - €4.5M
Manu Duah
San Diego Football Club · 21 years old
47.7
ASI
Current Value
€3.5M
% Change
+15.6%
1yr Forecast Range
€3.1M - €4.0M
Mbekezeli Mbokazi
Chicago Fire Soccer Club · 21 years old
47.7
ASI
Current Value
€3.5M
% Change
+15.6%
1yr Forecast Range
€3.1M - €4.0M
Nicolás Romero
Minnesota United FC · 22 years old
41.6
ASI
Current Value
€2.8M
% Change
+15.6%
1yr Forecast Range
€2.6M - €3.1M
Fallou Fall
St. Louis City Soccer Club · 22 years old
41.6
ASI
Current Value
€2.8M
% Change
+15.6%
1yr Forecast Range
Tomás Avilés
Club de Foot Montréal · 22 years old
40.2
ASI
Current Value
€2.5M
% Change
+15.6%
1yr Forecast Range
Olwethu Makhanya
Philadelphia Union · 22 years old
37.3
ASI
Current Value
€2.0M
% Change
+15.6%
1yr Forecast Range
Finn Surman
Portland Timbers · 23 years old
36.3
ASI
Current Value
€1.8M
% Change
+15.6%
1yr Forecast Range
Iago Teodoro
Orlando City Soccer Club · 21 years old
33.4
ASI
Current Value
€1.5M
% Change
+15.6%
1yr Forecast Range
Sign up free to see the full ranking of 38 cb players.
Sign up freeMarket Overview: MLS Young Centre-Backs (updated October 2026)
Our database tracks 38 MLS Young Centre-Backs as of October 2026, representing 22 clubs with a combined market value of €45.1M. The average market value for MLS Young Centre-Backs is €1.2M, with the average age at 21 years old.
The most valuable young centre-back in the MLS is Lucas Herrington, worth €4.5M and playing for Colorado Rapids at 19 years old. The top 5 Young Centre-Backs average €3.7M in market value, including Tomás Jacob and Manu Duah.
Age distribution shows the youngest tracked young centre-back is Ian James (18 years, Sporting Kansas City, €800K), while the oldest is Finn Surman (23 years, Portland Timbers, €1.8M). Research shows Young Centre-Backs typically peak at age 28.
Our 1-year forecast model projects 30 Young Centre-Backs (79%) will increase in market value over the next 12 months based on age-curve trajectories, current performance trends, and playing time analysis. The MLS market for Young Centre-Backs remains actively developing with emerging talent as of October 2026.
Explore Market Size by Position in MLS
Interactive bubble chart showing predicted 2-year growth vs current age for all MLS Young Centre-Backs. Identify undervalued assets and track market momentum across 22 clubs with €45.1M combined value.
Age Distribution: MLS Young Centre-Backs
The MLS CB market shows 2 distinct age segments, with the largest cohort in the 21-23 bracket (29 players, 76% of market). The 21-23 age group holds the most value at €37.4M, averaging €1.3M per player.
Top Young Centre-Backs by Age Bracket
U21 Years (9 players)
21-23 Years (29 players)
Market Value Distribution
Elite Tier Concentration
The top 4 Young Centre-Backs (11% of players) control €15.5M
Market Tiers
Market structure shows concentrated value with emerging (<€5m) tier representing 100% of the MLS CB pool.
Emerging (<€5M)
Club Distribution: MLS Young Centre-Backs
Among 22 MLS clubs, Colorado Rapids leads with 2 Young Centre-Backs worth €5.5M (averaging €2.8M per player). The top 10 clubs account for 55% of tracked Young Centre-Backs.
Colorado Rapids (2 Young Centre-Backs)
San Diego Football Club (3 Young Centre-Backs)
Atlanta United Football Club (2 Young Centre-Backs)
Club de Foot Montréal (4 Young Centre-Backs)
Scout Tools
Advanced analytics for scouting and recruitment decisions. Each tool provides unique insights into player value, potential, and market dynamics.
Pre-Peak Value Efficiency (PPVE)
Identifies pre-peak players offering exceptional value relative to their age bracket. Higher PPVE = better value.
Understanding Pre-Peak Value Efficiency (PPVE)
Colorado Rapids's Lucas Herrington at 19 years old has the highest Pre-Peak Value Efficiency at 9.00×. That means Lucas Herrington is valued 9.00× higher than the median player in the U21 age bracket-representing exceptional value before reaching peak age.
In second is Atlanta United Football Club's Tomás Jacob, who is 22 years old, with a 4.00× PPVE. Third is Manu Duah of San Diego Football Club, who is 21 years old with a 3.50× PPVE.
How PPVE is calculated: PPVE compares a player's current market value to the median value of all players in their age bracket. A PPVE of 9.00× means the player is worth 800% more than typical players their age-making them high-value targets before they reach peak value.
PPVE by Age Bracket
| Rank | Player | Age | Bracket | Current Value | Bracket Median | PPVE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| #1 | Lucas Herrington Colorado Rapids | 19 | U21 | €4.5M | €500K | 9.00x |
| #2 | Tomás Jacob Atlanta United Football Club | 22 | 21-23 | €4.0M | €1.0M | 4.00x |
| #3 | Manu Duah San Diego Football Club | 21 | 21-23 | €3.5M | €1.0M | 3.50x |
| #4 | Mbekezeli Mbokazi Chicago Fire Soccer Club | 21 | 21-23 | €3.5M | €1.0M | 3.50x |
| #5 | Fallou Fall St. Louis City Soccer Club | 22 | 21-23 | €2.8M | €1.0M | 2.80x |
| #6 | Nicolás Romero Minnesota United FC | 22 | 21-23 | €2.8M | €1.0M | 2.80x |
| #7 | Tomás Avilés Club de Foot Montréal | 22 | 21-23 | €2.5M | €1.0M | 2.50x |
| #8 | Olwethu Makhanya Philadelphia Union | 22 | 21-23 | €2.0M | €1.0M | 2.00x |
| #9 | Finn Surman Portland Timbers | 23 | 21-23 | €1.8M | €1.0M | 1.80x |
| #10 | Ian James Sporting Kansas City | 18 | U21 | €800K | €500K | 1.60x |
| #11 | Iago Teodoro Orlando City Soccer Club | 21 | 21-23 | €1.5M | €1.0M | 1.50x |
| #12 | Gilberto Flores Football Club Cincinnati | 23 | 21-23 | €1.2M | €1.0M | 1.20x |
| #13 | Julián Bazán Red Bull New York | 20 | U21 | €600K | €500K | 1.20x |
| #14 | Morrison Agyemang Charlotte Football Club | 21 | 21-23 | €1.2M | €1.0M | 1.20x |
| #15 | Juan Jose Arias Real Salt Lake | 22 | 21-23 | €1.2M | €1.0M | 1.20x |
| #16 | Andrei Chirilă Football Club Cincinnati | 18 | U21 | €500K | €500K | 1.00x |
| #17 | Diego Borges Sporting Kansas City | 21 | 21-23 | €1.0M | €1.0M | 1.00x |
| #18 | Reid Roberts San Jose Earthquakes | 22 | 21-23 | €1.0M | €1.0M | 1.00x |
| #19 | Noah Cobb Colorado Rapids | 21 | 21-23 | €1.0M | €1.0M | 1.00x |
| #20 | Osvald Søe San Diego Football Club | 20 | U21 | €500K | €500K | 1.00x |
Return-to-Peak Potential (RPP)
Recovery potential from current value to forecasted peak. Shows how much upside remains for players approaching their prime.
Unlock Return-to-Peak analysis for MLS Young Centre-Backs.
Upgrade to FanRisk-Adjusted Upside (RAU)
Upside potential weighted against forecast uncertainty. Higher RAU = better risk-reward profile.
Unlock Risk-Adjusted Upside for MLS Young Centre-Backs.
Upgrade to FanRoster Pressure Index (RPI)
Squad depth pressure based on Z-score distribution. Negative RPI = thin depth, positive = deep roster.
Unlock Roster Pressure Index for MLS Young Centre-Backs.
Upgrade to FanAge-Share Concentration (ASC)
Identifies players capturing disproportionate value relative to age group representation. Positive ASC = value concentration.
Unlock Age-Share Concentration for MLS Young Centre-Backs.
Upgrade to FanBuy-Now vs Wait-List Map
Categorizes players by age position and upside potential to guide timing of acquisition.
Unlock the Buy Map for MLS Young Centre-Backs.
Upgrade to FanPrice vs Peer Z-Score
IQR-based pricing analysis relative to position peers. Identifies over/undervalued players vs market.
Unlock Peer Z-Score analysis for MLS Young Centre-Backs.
Upgrade to FanIf you were MLS's sporting director, who would you sign?
Pick a club, select up to 3 players, and build your transfer proposal.
How We Rank MLS Young Centre-Backs
Our Analytical Strength Index is calibrated specifically for young centre-backs, using position-specific age curves and playing time benchmarks. The model draws from academic research on player valuation (Franck & Nüesch, 2012) and age-performance curves (Dendir, 2016).
Scoring Components for CB
Historical Achievement Index (35%)
Peak career market value for MLS young centre-backs, reflecting proven track record and reputation. Uses log-scale to account for exponential value distribution at elite level.
Current Performance Proxy (30%)
Present market value for MLS young centre-backs, capturing recent form, injuries, and current performance level. Weighted to reflect age-related depreciation patterns.
Playing Time Utilization (18%)
Defenders with 2,500+ minutes score highest, indicating regular starting role and sustained performance.
Age-Adjusted Performance Curve (12%)
Defenders peak at 28 with 5.0%/year decline rate. Pre-peak players score higher on development trajectory.
Competition Level Adjustment (3%)
MLS competition level factored into comparative strength assessment.
Performance Expectations Multiplier (2%)
Players at clubs with Champions League pedigree face higher performance standards and tactical complexity, contributing to development and market validation.
CB Performance Benchmarks
Peak Age: 28 years (balance of physicality and tactical intelligence)
Decline Rate: Widening steps, not a flat rate: about -5% at 29, -10% at 30, steeper from 31 (positioning offsets pace loss)
Optimal Minutes: 2,500 per season (regular starter with rotation management)
1-Year Market Value Forecast
Probabilistic model combining age-curve depreciation, value momentum, and playing time factors:
• Age Factor: Compounding and banded around a peak of 28: +25%/year through age 21, +15% at 22-23, +10% up to the year before peak, then -5%, -10% and steeper with each later band. Growth is damped above €30M.
• Value Trajectory: Near career peak (>95% of peak value): +3% momentum | Moderate decline: -5%
• Playing Time Factor: Regular starters (+2%), Squad rotation (-2%)
• Forecast Range: ±10% confidence interval
Research Foundation
• Dendir (2016): Age-performance curves for young centre-backs
• Carmichael et al. (2011): Player depreciation in top leagues
• Franck & Nüesch (2012): Hedonic pricing models for talent valuation
• Szymanski, S. (2015). Money and Soccer: A Soccernomics Guide
Frequently Asked Questions
Common questions about MLS Young Centre-Backs, updated October 2026
Who are the most valuable Young Centre-Backs in the MLS right now?
The most valuable young centre-back in the MLS today is Lucas Herrington, who is worth €4.5M and plays for Colorado Rapids. The second most valuable is Tomás Jacob (€4.0M, Atlanta United Football Club), followed by Manu Duah (€3.5M, San Diego Football Club). Our database tracks 38 MLS Young Centre-Backs with comprehensive market valuations updated in October 2026.
How are MLS Young Centre-Backs ranked?
MLS Young Centre-Backs are ranked by our proprietary Analytical Strength Index, which is specifically calibrated for Young Centre-Backs. The score combines six factors: Historical Achievement Index (35%) measuring peak career value, Current Performance Proxy (30%) reflecting recent market signals, Playing Time Utilization (18%) tracking minutes played, Age-Adjusted Performance Curve (12%) using position-specific peak ages, League Quality Coefficient (3%) for MLS competition level, and Club Tier Multiplier (2%) accounting for club prestige. This methodology is grounded in academic research including work by Dendir (2016) on age-performance curves and Franck & Nüesch (2012) on hedonic pricing models.
What age do Young Centre-Backs peak?
Defenders typically peak at age 28. In our valuation model, value then falls in widening steps rather than at a flat annual rate: around -5% at 29, -10% at 30, and -25% or more from 31. Research shows defenders balance physical attributes with tactical intelligence, allowing them to maintain high performance through their late 20s. The optimal playing time for peak performance is around 2,500 minutes per season.
How much does it cost to sign a top young centre-back from the MLS?
Transfer fees for MLS Young Centre-Backs vary significantly based on market value, contract length, and club bargaining position. For the top-ranked young centre-back Lucas Herrington (market value: €4.5M), estimated transfer fees would range from €3.6M to €6.3M depending on contract situation. Players with longer contracts (3+ years) command premium fees (1.2-1.4× market value), while those in the final year may be available for 0.8-1.1× market value. Our fee estimates are derived from historical transfer patterns and contract-clock modifiers validated against actual MLS transactions.
What is the value forecast for MLS Young Centre-Backs?
Our 1-year forecast model projects market value changes for MLS Young Centre-Backs based on age-curve depreciation, historical trajectory, and playing time adjustments. The forecast combines three factors: age-based appreciation/depreciation (pre-peak players compound gains toward their position's peak age, up to +25% a year through age 21 and easing as they approach it, while post-peak players fall in widening steps), market trajectory momentum (comparing current to peak value), and playing time confidence (regular starters receive +2% boost). Forecast confidence intervals account for position-specific volatility-defenders have ±10% volatility. Young players (under 22) and older players (over 32) receive 1.15× uncertainty multipliers due to unpredictable development or decline patterns.
Where does the MLS young centre-back data come from?
Our MLS young centre-back data is sourced from Football Analytics AI's proprietary Transfer Intelligence Database, which aggregates market valuations, player statistics, contract information, and transfer histories from multiple industry sources. Market values are updated regularly based on player performance, injuries, contract negotiations, and transfer market activity. We enhance this data with our proprietary analytics including position-specific scoring algorithms, age-performance curves calibrated to academic research, and statistical forecast models. All data is validated against official MLS sources and updated monthly (last update October 2026) to ensure accuracy for recruitment and investment decisions.