Transfer Tools
Contract Decay Analysis
Contract Decay Analysis
Strategic contract value modeling and renewal planning
Contract Overview
Current Value
€80M
Market PositionElite Forward
Age24 years
Contract Expiry
2027-06-30
Months Remaining18
Current Salary€180K/week
Decay Risk
High
Value Loss€25M
Timeline18 months
Recommended Action
Renew Now
PriorityCritical
Timeline3 months
Value Decay Projections
Current
Value: €80M•Salary: €180K/week
Low Risk
Monitor
6 Months
Value: €75M•Salary: €180K/week
Low Risk
Monitor
12 Months
Value: €68M•Salary: €180K/week
Medium Risk
Renewal Talks
18 Months
Value: €55M•Salary: €180K/week
High Risk
Urgent Renewal
24 Months
Value: €40M•Salary: €180K/week
Critical Risk
Transfer Risk
Renewal Scenarios
Early Renewal (Now)
Strong
Contract Length5 years
Salary Increase15%
Signing Bonus€10M
Total Value€95M
Risk Reduction85%
Mid-term Renewal (6 months)
Good
Contract Length4 years
Salary Increase20%
Signing Bonus€8M
Total Value€88M
Risk Reduction70%
Late Renewal (12 months)
Acceptable
Contract Length3 years
Salary Increase25%
Signing Bonus€6M
Total Value€78M
Risk Reduction50%
No Renewal
High Risk
Contract LengthN/A
Salary Increase0%
Signing Bonus€0M
Total Value€55M
Risk Reduction0%
Market Comparables
Victor Osimhen
Napoli•Age: 25•Expires: 2026-06-30
€€75M
→ €€60M
Renewal Negotiations
Lautaro Martínez
Inter Milan•Age: 26•Expires: 2026-06-30
€€70M
→ €€55M
Renewed Recently
Darwin Núñez
Liverpool•Age: 24•Expires: 2028-06-30
€€65M
→ €€65M
Secure
Risk Analysis
Age-related Decline
2-3 years
Probability35%
ImpactMedium
Mitigation Strategy:
Performance-based contracts
Market Saturation
1-2 years
Probability45%
ImpactHigh
Mitigation Strategy:
Early renewal with incentives
Injury Risk
Ongoing
Probability25%
ImpactHigh
Mitigation Strategy:
Insurance clauses
Performance Decline
1-2 years
Probability30%
ImpactMedium
Mitigation Strategy:
Structured bonuses
S
Sterling
Sporting Director
I'm analyzing João Félix's contract situation. With 18 months remaining, we have a critical renewal window. Value could drop from €80M to €55M without action. Ready to discuss renewal strategies.